Eleonore Dermy's Column
Article published in 23/01/2005 Issue

By Eleonore DERMY - journalist specialized in Russian society and policy in Paris

Translated by Marie ANDERSON

Where will the wave of revolution stop?
In many former Soviet republics, the Georgian and Ukrainian revolutions were followed very closely. Something which should make Russia tremble for it is so much attached to its "near abroad".

The scenes of jubilation by demonstrators on Independence square in Kiev, and the less recent ones by supporters of the turbulent politician Mikhael Saakashvili in Georgia encouraged many people among the opposition parties of several former Soviet republics. After the Rose Revolution in Tbilisi, the Orange Revolution in Kiev gives rise to dreams of a « Blueberry Revolution », a « Grape Revolution», or a « Yellow Revolution » in Belarus, Moldava, Kyrgyzstan, and even in Kazakhstan. And this to the great displeasure of their government in power and Moscow, since they see the Western hand behind those quivers of the Civil Society.

Moldava, this small republic stuck between Ukraine and Romania and ruled by the Communists since 2001, is getting ready for its upcoming Parliamentary elections on next March 6th. According to Russian news agency Regnum, events similar to the ones that happen in Georgia and Ukraine might take place there. Local observers would already be mentioning a « Grape revolution ».

Two opposition parties should stand in the elections: Democratic Moldova, leaded by Serafim Urechean – the mayor of the capital Chisinau, and the radical nationalists of the Christan Democratic People’s Party (CDPP) leaded by Iurie Rosca.

« The capital backs the opposition, which is controling the streets in Chisinau, comments Regnum agency. It is also worth mentioning that orange is the theme color of CDPP’s campaign, and that Iurie Rosca even distributed political propaganda documents which picture him together with Victor Yushchenko. »

Rosca already gave a warning in December 2004 : « Today, it is Ukraine which won the greatest victory. The next ones will necessarily be Moldava and Belarus. It is just a matter of time. These dictatorships cannot last much longer. »

In Belarus, ruled by Alexander Lukashenko’s iron hand, the Opposition attempts, with difficulties, to unite for the upcoming Presidential elections. According to Russian daily Kommersant, « their success is being strongly questioned ».

Indeed, the results of last October 17th referendum, although marred by serious irregularities, enabled the Belarussian President to change the Constitution and to run for a third term, fading hopes of a victorious democracy. And yet, as mentions Kommersant, the opposition coalition Free Belarus would also be dreaming of a « blueberry revolution ».

In the background, the United States?

Thousand of kilometers away, in Central Asia, the Kirghiz opposition is also quite busy. Their selected color would be yellow, as reports Moscow daily newspaper Nezavissimaïa Gazeta.

« Putting on bright yellow scarves and ribbons, they demonstrated [for one week beginning on January 7th] in the central square of Bishkek [capital of Kyrgyzstan], demanding the resignation of the President and his government. »

Kirghiz President Askar Akayev was quick to respond : « Western political Forces have still other countries in sight. », he declared, adding scathingly that Kyrgyzstan would not accept that those « velvet revolutions» be exported into the country. « The most dangerous thing is that our local troublemakers have now qualified coaches, capable of initiating a revolution, whatever be its color », he added.

There does is a real danger for the Kirghiz President, according to Nezavissimaïa Gazeta. « Today the situation in Kyrgyzstan is similar to the one that lead in Ukraine to the velvet revolution », expains the newspaper. « People are totally disgusted with the eternal same ruling elite : Askar Akayev has been president for 15 years. There is a « couter-elite » influent enough present in the country and in Western countries : a galaxy of major opposition figures. There is also a very tight network of opposition media and moreover the population has the experience of street protests. At last there is a charismatic leader, Felix Kulov who is presently in jail but considered as a political prisoner by Western countries. »

« Judging by its declarations, the Kirghiz government is deeply anxious about the Ukrainian events and will do anything to thwart and destroy the structure of the opposition, according to the director of the Russia’s Center for Strategic Studies, Andrey Piontkovski. And yet it remains to be seen until where this process will go. An attempt to repress might turn out to be efficient, but it might as well turn out to be counter-productive and boost this process further away. »

In Kazakhstan, the three main opposition parties recently united into the Coordination Council of Democratic Forces. There start to be signs of political activism among the young population.

During last December, a young people’s wave of discontent resulted in the resignation of the Minister of Education. « The United States also have interests in this republic: in the field of oil and gas, most of the investors are American, notices Nezavissimaïa Gazeta. And indeed, in the United States, American officials are being heard on the « Kazakhgate » case, for charges of bribery of the President [Nursultan Nazerbayev] so as to get advantageous oil contracts. And in the American press Nazerbayev is more and more referred to as the « Asian dictator ».

All these upheavals might have « important consequences », concludes the daily newspaper. « Russia might end up being surrounded by States which not only won’t be anymore our main allies, but also that will develop in the exact opposite direction. What took place in Ukraine and Georgia show that when Moscow arrogantly attempts to prevent such scenarios, it results in the opposite outcome. »



Eleonore DERMY is journalist specialized in Russian society and policy. Publications : Courrier International, La Croix, Pelerin.
 
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